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Honest Information, Profitable Trading

Durudarshan - Investment Analysis

My Blog


Recovery in the Eurozone can continue....

Posted on July 28, 2015 at 4:03 AM Comments comments ()
It seems observers in France, Nurenberg, St Petersburg, Ukraine, are all waiting to see Mr Putin's response in calling his 'rebels' out of what is supposed to be a buffer zone, and withdrawal of the artillery (which is not supposed to be there at this time, but still is).  The ground situation must be brought into line with the Minsk peace accord, everybody is hopeful, then the normalisation of trade relations can follow, which would do great good to unthaw the blocked trade in that region, at the moment costing the trading partners about $24 billion each year, periodically, until resolution of the situation.

In the meantime, the bailout arrangements for Greece seem to be taking a positive effect, their banks are starting to function as normal, people can withdraw money (subject to limits and capital controls still in place, which may be foreseen to be in place for another two years) and tourists are enjoying the beautiful sunshine and cuisine, drinking the retsina and ouzo. 

With the One Trillion Eighty Billion Stimulus - lot of property companies are receiving help, I believe - from the ECB, things can only improve for the Eurozone.  The Sixty Billion per month seems adequate for the meantime, and as each partner nation gets some funds, the economic Recovery will gather steam in the Eurozone.  

As from yesterday, the Chinese government is backing up some of the stocks in their stockmarkets, to provide backing and stability.  The huge falls over the last three weeks or so will presumably find some money pumped in by the government.  A trillion dollars took the Shanghai Index to its historic high before it fell recently; while the new money being put in to support may not take it to such highs again, probably there will be enough support to put a bottom to the market and probably provide a cushion upwards, but it will be done in such a way that nimble shrewd operators cannot pull money out of the system.  The government is introducing some regulations on what it calls 'malicious' short-selling.
Policy-making and implementation in China is very swift, within a period of six weeks mostly, so I imagine we can expect to hear positive news from the Chinese stockmarkets soon.

Although Oil price can be expected to fall to $40 in the current glut, and to $30 once the additional tap is on from Iran, I believe the Oil stocks may be at their bottom, and probably a buying opportunity.  Over a few years, likely they will see fortune in their favour.
(Everybody gambles at their own risk; I am merely expressing my view).

I shall be pleased to hear your views.

Kind regards,

9:02am   London