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Honest Information, Profitable Trading

Durudarshan - Investment Analysis

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What are the chances of the worldwide economic Recovery continuing this year?

Posted on January 2, 2016 at 11:19 AM Comments comments (16)
The chances are pretty decent of the worldwide economic Recovery continuing this year, with the promising possibility of enhancement.

Japan seems to have decided to continue its Stimulus, running at some $85 billion a month.  This is gigantic for the size of their population, and guarantees the highest standards of living in the world to all Japanese citizens, plus a growing influence around the world, where their capital is likely to foster growth and development.  For example, they have offered $35 billion to India for joint venture in developments of infrastructure, and this will certainly add to Japanese GNP.

India has done joint venture and co-operation treaties with Germany and France, to help develop some of the 100 new cities that Pradhanmantri Shree Narendra Modi announced at the beginning of 2015.  Since then, he has visited China and Russia, and is signing up co-operation and trade agreements with every likely nation, including many in Africa.  As a lot of Indians lived in Africa and grew up there, it seems India is taking an altruistic stance, wishing to repay with gratitude to their African brothers and sisters.  This is a laudable gesture, and will enable the inherent and huge potential growth that is in places such as Lagos and Zimbabwe. 

China too is extending its sphere of influence, Hon Xi Jinping visited so many nations and signing up trade and co-operation treaties.  I can imagine joy for all these nations, where they will have expertise been made available to them, together with the machinery and transportation to fully benefit from their resources as well as create infrastructure developments which they so badly need.  How can people not imagine dams, electricity, drinking water available on the doorstep, schools, dispensaries, hospitals, hotels, housing, tourists.....thriving economies....where God has blessed them with the rich fertile lands, mineral wealth, green vegetation, fragrant flowers, livestock to provide them plenty of milk.  Africa is most likely to come up with the most number of billionaires soon....or if not, at least top social entrepreneurs who will instead contribute to their lands through holding together and creating business enterprises which serve the communities.  If not dollar billionaires, these will be the enlightened spiritual billionaires who will do great good for their communities....at once, their people will have increasing standards of living.  If the local African banks can back these entrepreneurs, they can create the development and wealth and growth that is the potential.  I pray all these people receive the rich blessings from God.

The United States has steadily grown from the dark days of the 2008 meltdown to today, where the economy seems to have been totally restored, and is growing, with confidence, more jobs, more enterprise, more homeowners, more cars......Now the Fed will just need to fix the Debt Ceiling (in March, it seems).  If they just expand the balance sheet to January 2017, the Obama administration will be home and dry, and all the senators and representatives can continue to collect their pay checks. 
The alternative policies of the Tea Party crowd or Republicans like Donald Trump would see Obamacare repealed, and poor students being sent home due to lack of a free lunch at school.  Those dark days caused due to sequestration are something that is best forgotten. 

I pray Hillary Clinton shall become elected as the President at November 2016.  Simply, it seems her destiny.  It would resonate with the times and the perceptions of people today, everybody seeking self-expression in a democracy.  Her election will enshrine the highest achievement in gender equality.  That is a truth the people will not wish to hide, nor deny themselves. The time has come for this Democrat to rise as the dove, and sit in the highest office in the land.

She was very successful as a peacemaker in the Middle East when she was the Secretary of State.  She has a natural gift for making peace agreements, and people trust her.  She is a natural ambassador for peace.  The world atmosphere will change when she becomes President, the whole tone of political relations will change, I believe, for the better.  It is up to the people, to honour her, and elect her to the White House. 

The One Trillion Eighty Billion Stimulus that the European Central Bank has rolled out has the promise of being extended beyond September 2016, as announced by their President Mario Draghi recently.  That will offer ample scope for upgrade and innovation by the companies in the Euro Area (and by extension Europe) to meet the challenges of these times.  On that note, the one thing the world is waiting for is the Juncker Plan.  With reforms under way, Greece must surely be ready for it.

The low Oil price has depleted the reserves of the oil exporting nations, and their budget deficits have been bigger than envisaged.  That suggests they will review their stance on cutting productions, and introduce some cuts before long; their stance has hurt their purses deeply, so some change may be expected.  Russia too could follow suit, unless they are happy to foster a recession at home.  Common sense would suggest oil price could begin to rise.....but when is only known to the bigwigs in OPEC and Russia.  It is past the post-panic stage; it seems it is a time when they must be regretting not cutting back production earlier.  And there would be no loss of face.  Economic reality seems pretty harsh.

May I wish you good health and joy for the New Year.

Kind regards,
Durudarshan H. Dadlani

(c) Copyright, but may be freely shared.

Remember, remember the 5th of November....

Posted on October 2, 2015 at 4:33 AM Comments comments (2)
Well, in this case, it is the day the U.S. government will run out of money, according to Secretary of State for Finance Jack Lew.  Preventive measures are under way, with bills being passed in Congress to ensure that that does not happen.

According to notes I had made at the time, arrangements were in place for continued funding until March 2016, so now in the interim it just needs to be ratified.  That indeed what Congress is currently doing, with full support of both Democrats and Republicans, who, in the national interest, will endorse it and vote Yeah, most of them anyway, for what is prudent and necessary.  The coming generations will admire their aplomb.  The nation needs continued financing, and extending the Debt Ceiling is definitely the most practical way, extending the QE measures to facilitate the printing of more greenbacks and pumping them into the economy.  Hip hip hooray!

Whilst they are about it, I would suggest they should write in something to extend the 110 Billion Dollars a month for another year, taking safe passage to November 2016, by which time the elections will be over and the President-elect will be there in waiting. 

At the elections in 2012, the surprise was the last-minute voting of the red jerseys in New Hampshire for the Democratic Party.  All these young folks whose parents traditionally supported the Republicans realise the great benefit of Obamacare and the social net, which is necessary to have to keep body and soul together in the difficult times the country was transitting.  The Silver Ones will too wish to see their pensions preserved or even enhanced, and affordable medical care is a necessity.  That being so, I believe the Democrats will once again be at the helm.  I sense that Mrs Hillary Clinton will be elected President.  I wish her all the very best. 

As for Donald Trump, well, he's leading the Republican pack, and if he shows persistence, belief and faith in his campaign and is happy to spend another 100 million dollars of his own money, he's got a great chance too.  But let us see, he may shrewdly save his millions and say the numbers were starting to tank.  Mr Trump is a very outspoken man, and he is always interesting to listen to.  When he wears the cap on most occasions, you know he would like to be Commander in Chief.  Let's see what example he sets in his campaigning.

Kind regards,
Duru-darshan

(c) Copyright, may be freely distributed with acknowledgement.