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Durudarshan - Investment Analysis

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How can we perhaps have the miracle of Inflation?

Posted on October 10, 2015 at 7:07 AM Comments comments (12)
With record low interest rates in U.S., Europe and Japan, and consequently the huge amounts of capital available to borrow, there still doesn't seem to be the magic of inflation that we all seek, to confirm the economic growth has been healthy and getting stronger.  It seems an anaemic economic Recovery, so far as inflation is concerned.  Despite healthy consumer spending, a pick up in  the number of houses and cars being purchased or leased, the core inflation figures still seem moderate, and not justifying a rate hike (as the Bank of England holds it at 0.5 percent). 

There was a time when Japan had achieved what was at that time the miracle of conquering inflation, in the 1980-90s, to become the envy of the world, but later followed by a period of disinflation, deflation, stagnation, which held back economic growth for such a prolonged period although Japan as a powerhouse with their investments overseas have been doing okay all along. 

The occurance of Inflation had been conquered by a combination of factors : a) a strong Yen keeping import prices down; (b) Japan's ability to produce its way out of inflation (by creating growth at home, making import substitutions, indeed producing them in enough quantities to export); and (c) its high personal savings ratio and high rate of investment.  (That has been the summing up in A History of Money, by Glyn Davies, who I thank for this inspiration).

As a corollary, perhaps we should consider this propostion : to create inflation, Japan, as well as other economies, according to their cultural values and context, may consider : a) having a weaker currency, to increase exports; (b) import instead of creating at home; and (c) spending the high personal savings, and reducing the high proportion of investments.  I would add further that Japan should as a very wealthy nation improve their rates of social security, and give more to the unemployed and also to the young families who have children.  They certainly know they need to have more new children to balance the ageing population.  I have heard of them having villages of toy children; they should spend that and more to support newborn ones and the young families, that is the real future of their nation.

These are just a few pointers.  We must all brainstorm and find ways to create inflation.  In the U.S. and Europe, with the current record low interest rates, their is the stability and atmosphere of peace that should encourage people to work, earn, spend, live, laugh and be happy.  They can set the example for the developing nations and the nations who have warfare within their own communities; the huge crisis of migrants and refugees will have to be addressed in a way that will be fair to their own populations and interest as well as to the people having to flee the war-torn regions.  Peace must be encouraged, and supported; that should be a firm agenda.  If there is peace in Syria, the huge number of homeless people could perhaps be turned back to rehabilitate in their homelands?  It is so unfair and unjust to all those people for there to be war amongst their own communities, necessitating them to flee.  When the Yazidis were being beheaded and raped and made to leave their homelands and flee, that was clear evidence of persecution ; but the exodus by large numbers of Sunni Arabs whose homeland is Syria, what makes them flee? 

A humanitarian agenda of providing welfare to the homeless people camped in Turkey, Jordan, Iraq, and other countries will need to continue for the foreseeable future.  May God's mercy and the support of generous organisation and nations be unto them.  But ideally a re-location of these dislocated people must be considered as a solution in the long term.  It would be better if Syria were restored to normality, instead of their people proving a burden on other countries. 

It is deeply saddening to see so many people dislocated, with their routines disrupted, at the mercy of the world, living in tents, without access to home comforts which they have had to abandon in Syria.  How has such a situation been allowed to continue?  The good and moral forces in nations who stand for such principles should perhaps have jumped up to their support some time ago, but better late than never. 

Our Lord Rama's inspiration was "Where there is peace, there shall be prosperity".  This is sound timeless wisdom from the King of Ayodiya of old, over 7000 years ago in that Hindu kingdom.  It shall I believe always hold true. 

I would suggest to President Bashar al-Assad to put any considerations of vanity of holding power aside, and strip himself of any ego-satisfaction in doing so.  His noble purpose in his high office should be the happiness of his people, and  he must adjust his position to allow for that to flourish.  He must endeavour to create a government and a governance that is good for all the Syrian people, and curtail the brutality and violence to suppress the opposing people.  He must work with the idea of compromise, to gracefully bring and restore peace and happiness among his people.  I believe that would a reasonable price to pay to continue holding his high office.  Just a slight adjustment in his view would be good for his people.  Don't they deserve to be happy, for peace to be restored?

Today I have written about these two huge themes, and I hope there will be happy results in the future as these themes unfold. 

I send you my good wishes.

Kind regards,
Duru-darshan