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Honest Information, Profitable Trading

Durudarshan - Investment Analysis

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The salient points from Mario Draghi's keynote speech

Posted on November 21, 2015 at 5:49 AM Comments comments ()
The salient points from the ECB President's speech last Thursday were these :  The economic Recovery has been 'modest' when measured against other periods of growth after bust.  This has been perhaps the weakest Recovery, and has taken longest; nevertheless, a full fruition is in sight, according to figures (and I guess leading indicators), that this will be reached in the first quarter of 2016.

Previously, of course, Mr Draghi introduced the cut of 10 basis points in the ECB benchmark rate for the meantime, and this being the record low rate thus far gives great hope to bolster Recovery going forward.  The President also mentioned the willingness of the European Central Bank to continue the Stimulus beyond September 2016, as circumstances warrant. 

Currently the Stimulus is running at around Sixty Billion Euros per month, going into asset-backed securities, and this programme has been very successful.  (My figures suggest that stepping the Stimulus up to about One Hundred and Ten Billion Euros per month may enable a swifter pace to Recovery).

This is against a backdrop of deposits of 170 Billion Euros on average received for 'overnight deposits' at the ECB.  The velocity of circulation can be increased by adding to this pool from internal resources, and then loaning out the capital a little bit more aggressively, seeking out likely customers, and then helping In the effort of the Euro Area Recovery.  There must be a lot of old buildings in Europe, many of them of no significance historically, which could be torn down and something new built instead.  I suggest that perhaps new industries and leisure and arts and crafts complexes will need to be built up.  Can you visualise a film studio, a dance training academy, in some of the European cities?  I hope so.
Previously, I have suggested the setting up of a film industry hub in Spain would be a great idea.

The velocity of circulation can be helped?  The 400 Million Euros the French government intends to spend on combating terrorist crime in the wake of the recent attacks in Paris... maybe some of this may produce better value to help the deprived people in the inner city areas, which, classically, tend to become breeding grounds for terrorists and criminal activities, for sheer survival and frustration.  Hopefully something positive can create a positive feeling among those citizens, and turn them to the good cause of living and advancing in the civilised places. 

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U.S. Rate hike, Japanese taper, India repo rate too high 
My current study of the macroeconomic regional trends suggest that the U.S. may justifiably be in a position to hike the Fed rate around March; the Japanese economy is now in a phase which leads me to believe that tapering of their huge stimulus is now necessary;  for India, the RBI board must set their minds on cutting the rate further, and quickly, to cater for the pent up demand but also the industrial output where they have ambitious targets of growth.  6.75 percent for the repo rate is too high. 

A bitter sweet picture of prosperity and suffering humanity
Overall, the picture appears positive, and continued expenditure by consumers will produce even better results, bolstering the whole economic cycle, more jobs, more production, more satisfaction, this weighed against a backdrop of reducing the impact on climate change.  There are many things to be balanced other than national economies.  There is also the obligation, the duty to humanity, inherent in the developed and civilised nations, to support the countries today fostering the huge number of displaced people in Turkey, Jordan, etc, and crying for entry into Europe.  As winter approaches, those people will need shelter, food, beverages, clothing, warmth to survive...Give them something to keep themselves busy, with hope eternal, as in every human heart. 


A prayer for God's Umbrella
Today, I pray for understanding and compassion in every human heart, to help bring the war in Syria to an end, without further bloodshed and loss of life, without bombarding the already decimated houses and buildings and infrastructure which have been reduced to rubble, from which all the migrants and refugees have fled, some walking barefoot in hunger, cold and rain, seeking shelter.  Today, those people seek God's Umbrella.  Heavenly Father, where art Thou?

Has Syria and her people been forsaken?  I pray for your mercy and loving kindness to that nation.

In the name of our Saviour and gracious Heavenly Host, Jesus the Christ.  Amen.


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