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|Posted on January 16, 2016 at 5:44 PM||comments ()|
The recent stock market falls throughout the world tells its own story....it was sizeable, in India, China, Europe, U.S., everywhere.
I was not fearing a bearish tone setting in, but it could, depending on what announcements Federal Reserve Chairwoman Dr Janet Yellen makes in about 10 days time. The journalists will wish to ask her regarding the Debt Ceiling, till when it is fixed, and the size of the funds being pumped into the U.S. economy month by month. At last count it was something like $110 Billion per month (the official quantitative easing was in addition to that). The ceiling seems to have been drawn into the sand until March 2016; could they see the wisdom of extending it to November, or, better still, January 2017? Then the U.S. will have no worries while the tenure is with Mr Obama's administration, to set the policies and authorise the funding. Hopefully, the Republicans bar the Tea Party will see the good common sense of keeping the funding flowing, as is prudent and necessary; of course, they will all also be ensuring the continuation of their own pay packets. Those who wish to forego that and even bring on the sequestration cuts or government shutdown will of course be losing supporters, I imagine, as very few people would like to see their nation's government bodies functioning in an ineffectual way.
The OPEC countries all have taken a huge hit with the lower Oil price, the wealthiest of them, Saudi Arabia having reduced their reserves by some $80 Billion in the last year, and now (despite having substantial reserves of $650 Billion or so) raising some bonds on the international markets to the tune of $20 Billion. Other nations may have been hit by deficits, and are now just desperately seeking to keep their share of the market, obliging for the meantime (hoping it will be short and not too painful) by keeping the Oil overflowing and selling at a low, uneconomic, price. The competition of the marketplace makes it so, in the process hitting their own pockets, and rendering the shale and fracking industries heading for shutdowns. This month Saudi Arabia and Russia will have to own up that the sliding price of Oil has hurt them badly, and they have to revise their policy, bring in some production cuts all round, and rebuild a healthy price. It makes no sense to any observer that they are virtually throwing away this valuable and precious commodity. Iran may tease the market with a low price (some think it will touch $15 or $20) but needless to say such price will be for a short fleeting moment perhaps. The Chinese have started to buy up all the surplus available, and it could indicate they are stocking up their stores, and there may be a turning point soon when commodities will hit a rock bottom soon and China will once again start to use them full blast.
My hunch is still that there will be stable, modest growth throughout the world, unless (God forbid) there is outbreak of hostilities between Saudi Arabia and Iran. On the other hand, it would benefit both economies if they agree on co-operation and production quotas, and continue their trade in an environment of regional peace.
Peace would help the economic momentum to continue and speed up; any hostilities or war will hamper growth and trade. Also, it is an observation that the world climate as deteriorated with the global warming, and that has been worsening since the bombings in various nations in the Middle East recently. That may be the main cause of the carbon emissions which are screwing up the ecological systems. War always burns up the nations' wealth as well as affect the global climate. War is something that causes misery, death and bloodshed, and continues the cycle of hatred. It is time that must be decelerated now. Let our Mother Earth enjoy complete peace, and let our Heavenly Father see all his children live on Earth as they would in Heaven. After all, it seems Earth is endowed with all the natural resources, constantly replenished and supplied with water and air and prana....and the pranis can't even live side by side in peace in some cases? That should be pleasing to the Heavenly Beings. All humanity owes it to God and Goddess to make sure we behave in a way as they would have us.
I am pleased to see so many readers to my website from Redmond (US), Birmingham (UK), Kiev, St. Petersburg, Fouzhou, and even unidentified parts of the world....I hope it is not the Martians!
In the U.S. presidential race, it appears that Hillary Clinton holds Donald Trump on form. While Bernie Sanders is a very impassioned speaker and proposes some liberal ideas which people would find very appealing, Mrs Clinton is just as genuine; and this time round she is not appearing as waiting to be crowned, but rallying up support; she has a battle ahead, but it appears she could win. If she wins over the people of Iowa, that will be a good start. As for Donald Trump, Ted Cruz seems to be cruising up, so now there is a question who will actually become the Republican candidate. It is going to hot up.
If peace prevails, the world could see continued stable although modest growth.
I wish you joy and good health.
Durudarshan H. Dadlani
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