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Durudarshan - Investment Analysis

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Juts like the Greeks, perhaps Britons should rethink on Brexit?

Posted on July 7, 2016 at 6:07 AM Comments comments (44)
Perhaps it is a blessing in disguise that the British people have a few months to weigh up the likely effects of Brexit before and whether Article 50, Lisbon Treaty, be triggered.

That in any case will not happen before 9th September, when the Conservative Party should have chosen their Leader, and who inter alia will succeed as the Prime Minister.  In the meantime, David Cameron, foremost proponent of the Remain campaign, holds fort. 

At this stage, it is anyone's guess who will emerge as the new Prime Minister.  Will it be Mrs Theresa May, the most highly experienced of the trio still left standing for the office.  Or will it be the Leave proponent, Mrs Andrea Leadsom, who has wide experience in the workings of the City financial markets? She has been endorsed by the former odds-on favourite for the job, the light-hearted but mercurial Boris Johnson, who for some reason stood down for the position when he was expected to stand and win it.  Michael Gove was the apparent reason Boris Johnson declared himself out of the race.  Mr Gove is seen as a determined but confused person, who let Boris down so badly by declaring himself a candidate instead of just supporting the hugely popular BoJo for the job.

The Conservative parliamentarians are going to continue to vote for the trio until one of them drops out by achieving the lowest backing.  Thereafter, the remaining two will be put to the ballot of Tory Party registered members, and that postal ballot (shouldn't it be an Internet friendly ballot?) will decide on the victor in this race, thereafter to be appointed Prime Minister.

David Cameron indicated that could be by October;  that gives Britons plenty of time to rethink on Brexit.

The media, especially The Sun newspaper, who so very openly advocated a Leave campaign and may have influenced the outcome of this very important Referendum, owe it to the public I believe to weigh up the consequences so the public can take a thoroughly considered view on this issue and decide what would be best.  It may be a blessing in disguise that there are a few months before the new Prime Minister is in place, so Article 50 can also be fully understood before some rash decision is made.

Currently, Britain has seen the Pound Sterling drop from 1.48 to 1.29 in a matter of two weeks.  That may be good for exports, but a lot of wealth has been written off.  Secondly, Denmark and other E.U. nations were proposing to withdraw their FDI in U.K.  A number of Real Estate Investment Trusts have suspended trading on the market, and property projects building across London and the U.K. have come to a halt.  This is certainly bad news for Britain. 

You just have to walk through the Mall in any town and the realisation dawns on you that there is likely to be a slowdown (already is) unless confidence becomes restored in economic security for the foreseeable future.  Shops are not busy.  If they are busy, people are just window-shopping.  People are sitting in the sunshine on the benches outside.  The stalls are not attracting too many customers.  On a bright day, people don't look too happy.  People are careful with their supermarket shopping once more.  And not surprising at all.  Some shops seem as if they will close unless customers start to return there in numbers.  Jewellers, bookshops, clothes retailers, even the High Street favourites, seem a bit quiet, for the time being.  And all this is just with the fear of Brexit, which hasn't formally been agreed.  What would actually happen in the case of Brexit being formally agreed is anyone's guess.

You know, the Greeks also had a Referendum, on whether to leave the European Union.  And they also chose to go for it, and get back their in-de-pendence from the superstate....Then once they realized that their pensions and social security (which are issued in Euros) would not be paid to them if they confirmed their verdict....well, they tactfully changed their minds and said they wanted to have their drachmas back but could not see life without the Euro.  Their young Prime Minister Alexis Sipras declared that to the E.U. Ministers, and all was well.  The Greek nation received the bailouts from Europe, and the people their money, and all could celebrate with a glass of retsina or ouzo as Europeans, flowers of the same Europa bouquet. 

Actually, I believe the European Union can help restore confidence, especially on the issue of Immigration, and then perhaps the British will see the good sense in remaining part of the E.U.
Namely, the people are adamant they do not want any more uncontrolled immigration.  As David Cameron has suggested, Britain would like to see immigration only on a points and quota based system, and a closed door policy to freeloaders looking for an easy life.  This is something the European nations too have to consider and make part of their policy : can anyone really see any nation accepting so many refugees and migrants from Syria or wherever?  There is a growing resentment and not welcome towards these beleaguered people, and of course it would be better to foster peace in their original homelands so they could return there, as soon as practically possible.

If the British people have the reassurance that the E.U. will halt this open doors policy, and not force any member nation to take any more refugees or migrants then they can practically accommodate, then there may be cool heads willing to look at the benefits of remaining part of the Union. 

With positive consideration of these matters, it may be possible to have arrangements between the European Union nations to put aside these fears of a recessionary environment and instead enter at a good pace a further period of economic Recovery.  All being well, a period of Prosperity could well be in sight, in another eighteen months or so, with all the wheels oiled in the E.U. and the Euro Area nations.  The Pound Sterling being a Reserve currency of huge repute does of course provide a 'mirror' for the Euro, which is still in its infancy in that regard.  Co-operation and support between all nations would provide mutual benefit, that I sincerely believe.  In a global inter-dependent world, no nation can afford to become isolationist or inward-looking.  To the contrary, all nations have to engage in open debate and pursue agendas where they have similar objectives and could harness synergy through amicable co-operation.  For that understanding, I pray.


Kind regards,

Durudarshan H. Dadlani


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