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Durudarshan - Investment Analysis

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I see continued economic Recovery for Europe, especially if Britain remains in the E.U.

Posted on June 18, 2016 at 6:48 AM Comments comments (19)
It will be the will of the people, with each person voting the way they wish, in secret, at the ballot box, which will decide whether Britain remains in the E.U., or exits. 

I am utterly shocked to hear of the death at the hands of violence of the Member of Parliament, Mrs Jo Cox, who was championing the Remain side, but I cannot imagine that this was the reason for her death.  When her speeches in Parliament were being re-played on TV on Thursday afternoon, it cannot have failed to impress anyone that here was a person who felt very deeply about the welfare of people, and brought the plight of suffering humanity to an audience who could possibly do something to help them.  I hear she previously worked for Oxfam, and visited many nations as an aid worker. 

She was holding her MP's surgery at the library in Birstall in the afternoon.  There, two men who were there got into some argument, jostled each other out of the library, whereupon Mrs Cox went to pull them apart, and apparently one of them took out an 'old fashioned revolver' out of his bag and shot her and stabbed her.  A 52-year old man wearing a white baseball cap was later arrested and is in police custody.  What reason can there be for anyone to vent so much fury and actually kill someone?

There was something ominous about 16/06/16, Thursday, when this happened.  It is greatly saddening that it happened to this humane and sprightly young woman, who served her community so well.  I send my condolences and brotherly loves to her family, and pray God rests her soul in Heaven.  Amen. 

On days when some Triple Six is in the numbers, especially the day, I imagine some people get some kind of wickedness unleashed in their brains, which causes such incidents.  The next such day I imagine could be 26th of this month.  I pray anyone being taken over by the Satanic influence should pray and pray and pray for themselves and not be taken over to commit any such nasty deeds.  I pray in the name of Jesus our Saviour.  Amen.

The campaigning on the E.U. Referendum seems to have been suspended by the political parties for the time being, as the flag flies at half mast in Westminster and they lay flowers and light candles to the memory of this golden soul from Yorkshire. 

On the economy, Britain seems to be holding strong, with fewer people unemployed last month.  I can imagine more factories being re-started, as there is a huge demand in the world for food and technology and even furniture that Britain produces so well.  The money invested here by the European nations will stay here and maintain such jobs if we remain in the E.U.  With the European Bank stimulus of some 85 billion Euros per month now promised to continue for at least another year and possibly beyond, there is all the prospect that Recovery will be enhanced.  Well-meaning friends like Mme Angela Merkel, suggest Britain should stay In.  Denmark would be so upset if we decide otherwise that they will pull out their investments totalling £150 billion if we vote out.  Common sense suggests it would be good to remain In.  It would bring a greater economic Recovery to all the E.U. nations.  Why should Britain wish to go it alone at this time which offers great prospects for the future?

I send my condolences and brotherly loves to Jo Cox's family, and pray God rests her soul in Heaven.
In the name of Jesus our Saviour and Redeemer.  Amen.











Remain? Brexit? What do you think?

Posted on June 15, 2016 at 1:12 PM Comments comments (41)
The perception is that the Brexit movement is gathering pace, at least over the last four weeks.  While the Remain camp is 4/6ON with the bookies, they have seen odds drop from a generous 7/2 to 6/4 for Brexit.  Let's be fair, both sides are trying to sex up their deal, so more and more supporters fall in line with their thoughts, never mind the future.

Both sides are presenting the same arguments tailored to say the other side would be bringing us disadvantages, whereas if you vote for our side, everything should be hunky dory come 24th June.

Well, more and more it appears this is a critical referendum, and the result will be irrevocable.  If we Britons decide to continue our membership of the European Union, blah, the Prime Minister at least will be pleased.  But so will Her Majesty (who I gather is very much in favour of staying In, although she is supposed to express a neutral opinion on political matters).

If the fools persuade enough people to vote Leave (and the international media mogul Rupert Murdoch's widely read tabloid The Sun is advocating BeLeave) the uber rich would be happy.  The media baron will be overjoyed, to once again call the outcome of an election and get it right.  Well, I have news for them.  It is clear they are using the statistics that only about 3 percent of the British population (of 66 million) bother to vote, under normal circumstances.  And if you note that the Sun has about 3 million readers, even if some of them go along with the preaching, they cannot go wrong in having called the result.  Well, this time I sincerely hope that all the other newspapers will perhaps subtly urge their readers to support the Remain side.  Fair's fair, but this time I pray we can all rally and carry the day with a Remain (IN) vote on 23rd June.  I would ask everybody possible to vote likewise.

Breaking away from the European Union would be the worst possible mistake : the friendship, mutual support and agreeable trade terms we enjoy with the EU bloc is something that cannot be replaced.  Besides, it seems so natural for Britain to have ties with the European nations. 

After the renegotiations by the Prime Minister, he came away with a good bargain : there would be no interference by the EU in matters of sovereignty, English Law, or keeping the Pound Sterling (one of the most respected Reserve currencies in the world). 

The main issue the Leave camp seem to be focusing on is future immigration : the fear of approximately 76 million people from Turkey wishing to enter Europe freely, and perhaps seek settlement in these lands.  Of course, such fears are just fears.  I cannot imagine people from a country that is blessed with good climate, ample natural resources, hardworking and creative people who like to trade and prosper, wishing to seek settlement in Europe....well, some of them will, but certainly I cannot imagine the vast majority of them even considering it, whenever Turkey should join the E.U. and obtain those rights.

The huge numbers of refugees and migrants from Syria waiting for entry and accommodation in E.U. countries is a problem which will seek solutions, which the government ministers in Europe are taxing their brains to find humane and just solutions to.   An influx of talented, hardworking immigrants may find accommodation in some countries, depending on economic circumstances; but the vast majority would certainly be much better off in their beloved Syria, where, God-willing, peace can prevail and take hold, and the various factions in humane understanding can allow their brethren and sisters back home.  Here I have suggested the European nations, together with other nations, especially the Arab League, should consider and indeed offer funds for reconstruction of various parts of that once prosperous and beautiful nation.  I believe that once peace has been re-established, a flourishing economy will once again rise up.  Allah has granted ample natural resources to Syria, with creative and talented people.  It is a point of sadness that the mad civil war has reduced some many cities to rubble, and caused so much heart-break to so many people, who now must be tired of the constant bombardment and harassment - and that has been largely responsible for making these people into homeless people, begging for food and drink, pleading for the mercy of entry and accommodation in these lands.  In the meantime, the world can admire the efforts and cost Turkey, Jordan, Lebanon and other nations have borne in feeding and accommodating these beleaguered people, even though in tents in camps. 

I pray the European nations and the Arab League nations will talk sense with Mr Bashar al-Asaad, and help him to create favourable peaceful conditions in Syria, so they can once again be on track to Recovery and Prosperity. 

But in the meantime, I pray the fears of immigration of huge numbers shall not confuse the people in Britain not to look after their own interests.  The Chancellor (George Osborne) has again stated that should Britain leave the E.U., he will have no alternative but to impose an Austerity budget immediately thereafter.....He sees a 'black hole' of £30 billion, which would necessitate reduction of pensions and social security, and curtailment of NHS services....If there is a Brexit, the people who are in the NHS ques will have to be served as before, only it would take longer, and some services will not be there, due to less money in the system. 

I believe this great and humane nation would be best off remaining part of that family of great and humane nations that is called the European Union.  The mutual respect and support in spirit and cultural matters that we have for one another is something money cannot buy. 

Everything considered, I shall vote In.

Kind regards,
Durudarshan

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I believe the markets could be heading up.....

Posted on June 9, 2016 at 1:28 PM Comments comments (13)
Once Hillary Clinton had amassed the support of 2383 delegates and super-delegates to her side on 7th June - and this was before the primaries in 5 other states, with 475 delegates in California still to woo - it would have been clear to anyone but Bernie Sanders that he was out of the race, fair and square.
Now that Mrs Clinton has an additional 365 delegates backing her, and some 100 plus still to be declared, it is obvious she will be the Democratic Nominee for President, a historic first for this very accomplished lady who said it was her honour to serve as Secretary of State.  She visited 40 countries in her first year in  her Foreign Affairs/Defence portfolio, and many more in another three years, constantly shuttling to and fro between Middle East nations, in her endeavours to create peace and make it work.  Her accomplishments were great, surmising from the fact that it was much more peaceful in that region, where she was trusted as a messenger of peace. 

Using a public email server to exchange private emails is perhaps something she should not have done.
But in an environment of sophisticated hacking, where even the most secure internet servers are known to have been penetrated, this is a minor shortcoming which perhaps should be excused.  So long as no one's safety or security was directly compromised, it seems to have been a harmless use of the internet as most normal people do use it.  As for the Benghazi grilling, Mrs Clinton was fully exonerated and vindicated, leaving there joyfully relieved and her head held high.  That to me is a clear indication of her unquestionable integrity. 

People across the globe are joyful to see her reach the milestone of becoming the first woman Presidential Nominee of a major political party in the U.S.A.  The global joy shall be greater when Hillary actually becomes President.  If she is in tune with the peoples' aspirations, I pray the people will support her and vote for her at the general election, and celebrate and participate in making history on 8th November.

I believe the DOW will now move up, in any case, to 18,500 - which perhaps it should have reached last year, so now with clarity in the political situation, I believe it will do so before long.  Even if people think Donald Trump will be President, that too would be a bullish signal for the market.  He is a man of great experience, having project managed the construction of many fine buildings in New York and Chicago and Atlantic City, and has sound understanding of the workings of government - he got the Wollman Ice Rink in New York built within 6 months and at less than budget while the local council office had spent some six years previously on the project and not done much on it.  Mr Trump travels up and down the country in his 727 jet or his helicopters, and I imagine he will have identified possible projects which he will now pursue 24/7, in his usual style.  He will certainly keep on doing good for his family owned company, and perhaps he may even do some more philanthropic activities, this is something I read in one of his books.  He is a dynamic personality, a dreamer who practically realizes what he dreams, if he can.  At this stage, he is fully focused on winning the Presidency.  His foreign policy pronouncements may be something that may dissuade people from voting for him.
He is an enlightened billionaire, and believes in distributing the Bible.  I feel sure the world will hear his name all the time in the future.  Donald Trump can certainly develop or repair America like not many other people, and he has a golden heart for the people.  As President of the Trump Organisation, he certainly has the capacity to do much good for the people, and I pray he will help people out maybe in public housing projects, good housing built in affordable prices, creating jobs in many industries, perhaps producing his lovely golden limousines?  This man with the Midas touch could certainly help regenerate Detroit. 

In the meantime, if the market perceives that Hillary will be the President, then I see the market going up to 19,000, based on continuation of the Federal Reserve policies and extension of the Debt Ceiling.
This is just my opinion, people take positions at their own risk of course.

I see good times ahead.  Only yesterday his Excellency Prime Minister Narendra Modi discussed the construction of 5 nuclear power plants in India, whilst in talks at the White House with Mr Obama.
With the severe heat and droughts in India, that project cannot be soon enough.  I trust it is okayed soon so that construction can begin.

Kind regards,
Durudarshan

(c) Copyright.
  

Brexit? The U.S. Presidential race? How goes it?

Posted on June 4, 2016 at 4:33 PM Comments comments (9)
At the end of some serious grilling by journalists and audience in front of TV cameras, a flustered and even exasperated looking David Cameron (Prime Minister) was asked : What will come first, Brexit or World War III?  All burst out laughing at this immense joke.  The Referendum is only three weeks away, on 23rd June, so safely we could say World War III will be before Brexit - with the implication that Brexit will not happen.  It would be humourless to conclude otherwise.  Well done Faisal Islam for posing that question.

As for the Presidential race in the U.S., the primary stage is nearly over, with just one more round, with huge number of delegates to be won in California, both for the Democrats and the Republicans. 

Mrs Hillary Clinton is patently likely to clinch the nomination, she has an unassailable lead against the less experienced but full of vim and vigour Senator Bernie Sanders from Vermont, who is much supported and cheered by those who like his offer of wide-ranging policies of universal free medical care and other freebies.  Those would not happen anyway, even if he were President.  Neither Democrats nor Republicans would allow passage of such bills, let alone allow them to become statute. 

As for the irrepressible Donald Trump, he keeps going strong, and at the primary stage is now the presumptive Republican Nominee.  At this stage the Republican House seniors may endorse him, although there was some suggestion that they may have someone else waiting in the wings, to take up the Republican banner.  But if Donald remains the Nominee, he will have a tough time explaining himself to the world community his tirades against the Mexicans (or some of them), Muslims (or some of them) and such controversies.   The world would be excited to learn his revealations about who was really responsible for the 9/11 bombings.  He will have to tell the world something substantive, and something that the world community will wish to verify. 

For the next stage, for the general election, it will be Hillary Clinton versus the bombastic billionaire.
Both are strong, charming personalities, and both I believe have an equal chance of winning.
We are in for some very interesting debates till 8th November, by when the public will have voted for the President. 

The office of President of the U.S.A. is the most powerful office on Planet Earth, in as far as the free world is concerned.  It is the office that embodies and espouses the highest principles of safeguarding and perpetuating democracy and liberty, safeguarding our freedoms. 

Who seems worthy of it? The First Lady of Arkansas, the first female Senator, the First Lady of the U.S.A., the distinguished Secretary of State for Defence who served her role as a duty of honour - will she become the first female Head of State of this superpower? 

Or could it be Donald Trump, the multi-billionaire who has built so many tall buildings in New York and Chicago, and had a personal interest in finding out who commissioned the attacks on the twin towers on that fateful day?

If Mrs Clinton wins it, she could be starting a very welcome new chapter of peace in the Middle East, which she has suggested in her book Hard Choices.  She has access and experience to top level information on state of play on the ground in many regions, and her sincere efforts at fostering peace are very much appreciated.  She was accepted as a trusted peace maker, and people in various regions are looking forward to her being at the helm of her nation.  It is indicative that many expect the world political atmosphere to ameliorate with her presence.  People seem to instinctively trust her.
She was exonerated after the Benghazi grilling, and came out fully vindicated with her head held high.
She seems now fully ready to be elected to the highest office in the land, and which she would serve well, with Bill by her side to guide her in monetary, fiscal and community policies regarding job creation.  It is believable that she could create about four million jobs in her first year, within constraints of the budget that would be possible in today's atmosphere.  Once the people really warm to her, and realize she would mean well by the whole of American society, I believe they will vote and get her elected.  I believe she will be the Madame President the world has been waiting for.

I shall be pleased to hear your comments and views, as always.


Kind regards,

Durudarshan


(c) Copyright.


 

Peace prevailing in Syria, and re-settlement of the Refugees and Migrants seems a solution the E.U. would seek

Posted on May 28, 2016 at 4:05 PM Comments comments (20)
Clearly, no nation can afford to take the responsibility of accommodating or rehabilitating the vast number of Migrants and Refugees from Syria, who now face trying times in no-mans-land, suffering the weather, being grateful for the food and drink they receive, and obliged to learn German or French in the meantime to indicate their willingness to be accepted somewhere.

The sheer scale of the refugee crisis and migrant crisis is causing much concern amongst government circles in the European Union nations, and even in Brussels, as they collectively have their HQ offices there.  In view of the terrorist attacks on Brussels not many months ago, it has certainly created a pronounced feeling of ambivalence.  It may be a growing feeling that none of the E.U. nations are going to accept all these people for whom they have neither the housing, schools, medical facilities, nor the financial resources. 

The best solution may be for peace to prevail in Syria itself, and so all those people can be re-settled in their homelands.

This is where their President has to help the situation, by encouraging a peace settlement in Syria.

It is common knowledge that he signed some Law or Decree that the President shall serve for not beyond two terms of seven years each.  That is his law for the future of his nation.  Be it noted that he himself has already served two by seven year terms, that ended two years ago when he signed that Law into being, and therefore by his own dictat he should not be serving any more time as President.  Perhaps it may be fitting for the nation to create some titular or symbolic exalted office for him to help oversee the arrangements.  Mr Bashar al-Asaad would do best to help re-convene the peace talks, and guide them to formulating a peace plan that would benefit all people of his nation, hopefully leading to reconstruction (which the E.U. nations may be willing to help Syria in arranging the finance and planning) so that the people of Syria may once again live peacefully within Syria and thrive in this beautiful and once-prosperous land.  Organising this vast nation with the sweet will of the people collectively is the only way.  Use of force to subjugate has not worked, and never will.  The people of Syria seemed to have a sense of reverence and loyalty towards their great leader the late Hafeez al-Asaad, but his very able son and successor seems not to have earned such elevated esteem in the eyes of the people.  If he can sacrifice any personal feeling to holding power, and instead decide on a persona in which he could help lift his people, he would do well, and could help the peace talks greatly.
Of course, he would be helping his poor beleaguered people greatly if peace could prevail upon his nation.  He must direct the curtailment of any attacks on any people inside his nation, no matter under whose disguise they operate. 

As the days start to become hot in Europe, that must be good news for the Syrian refugees and migrants who are used to sunnier climes in Syria.  But necessary to add, the hot weather, with lack of adequate toilet facilities, uncomfortable existence in tents, lack of medicine and doctors, (and various problems the people in the field out there can imagine too well) may bring about illnesses or viral breakouts.  Hopefully, the authorities closet to them will take due note of this and make some arrangements to deal with such situation so they can be confined, dealt with adequately, so they don't spread further.

In the past, the European Union nations have shown their willingness to contribute a few Billion Euros to help the Syrian refugees and migrants, so in good faith the Syrian people, including Mr al-Asaad and the opposition, should try and work out a peace formula that will help all the people of Syria.  To see them leading such wretched lives outside must be a reason of great concern, from a humanitarian aspect. 

Why doesn't Mr Bashar al-Asaad devote some time to writing his memoirs, so he can review the past six years or so, and realise that it has been to no avail.  Is it not deeply saddening to realize that so many people have lost their lives, in this mad conflict which has been of benefit to no-one and has brought sadness and strife to so many people.  No person who is a believer and draws inspiration from God can possibly afford to stand by and allow the sad situation to continue, or ignore it for the meantime.  The daily suffering of so many people, who once lived happily in Syria, in their own homes, enjoying a piece of bread, some vegetables, some delicacy, a date, some sweet water, praising Allah for providing a good life......Today those people are stranded in the open air, without even basic necessities of survival. 

I pray that all the people of influence who could do something and persuade others to sit down and negotiate and formulate some peace plan, will take the initiative in the name of humanity and see whatever little they can do towards this peace in Syria.  May God's blessings be upon you.

I pray for all this in the name of our Saviour and Redeemer. 
Amen.

(written by Durudarshan)

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Can the U.S. Federal Reserve afford to hike the rate just yet?

Posted on May 27, 2016 at 1:59 PM Comments comments (23)
The world seems focused on whether Fed Chairwoman Dr Janet Yellen will announce a rate hike, or give an indication on when this somewhat dreaded eventuality may take place. 

I suggest that it would not be prudent, not just yet, in spite of the good economic numbers which suggest a continuation of the economic Recovery in the U.S.   Problems in Venezuela and Brazil and the Oil exporting nations, all seeming to go through what seems temporarily recessionary environments, together with perceived slowdowns in the BRICS nations, all with their top-heavy benchmark interest rates, would suggest that all those nations may be best reducing the rates instead.

Reason number one is the impending general election.  On past indications, the DOW has moved upwards between July and October if the polling data suggests victory for the Democrat candidate; or slightly downwards if its appears the Republicans will be in.  This time will be no different.  Wall Street are friends and supporters of Hillary Clinton; if she is elected President this time, it will spell good news for the financial markets (inter alia a dovish and stimulating policy from the Fed).  Of course, it will be the news to sustain the Silver Seniors, as Hillary will look after the interests, and deservedly so, of the retired folks, but also have a kind policy for the welfare of the youngsters, as is Democrat canonical policy, plus of course an improvement of the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare), for which she would have been the proponent (had she made it to the White House last time round). 

It will be interesting to see what Hillary does when she is Madame President.  I assume she will pursue humane and people-friendly policies, as is the Democrat tradition, as well as try to nurture peace internationally, as is also a great Democrat tradition faith.  The world at large it seems are very hopeful of seeing her win.   With her unparalled experience as Secretary of State for Defense, she has a unique grasp of the international scene; she was a trusted power broker in the Middle East, and I gather from her writings that she would be the one to further the cause of peace in this region.  Most of her friends there I imagine are eagerly anticipating her victory - needless to say, she will have a ready made agenda for peace in this region. 

The possibility of Donald Trump becoming President seems to excite and at the same time alarm a lot of people.  This double-talking bombastic billionaire insults and enthuses in equal measure.  He is needless to say a mercurial personality, who would rather openly confront people than harbour hidden rebukes.  The Mexicans and the Muslims and the new London Mayor, Sadiq Khan, may look forward to interesting exchange of words with the irrepressible Donald Trump.  It seems he has been a President in the making for nearly four decades, but only formally taken up the cause this once.  He is out to win, and most people seem to fear him and stand out of his way.  People would not like to be obligated to such an atmosphere of fear, and will therefore be doing everything possible not to see him win.  But he is a revisionist, and will reconsider what he has said and make corrections, and win back peoples' friendship or goodwill.  Whether that is just for the time being, while he is in a Presidential mood to try and clinch the office, and how such thinking will translate in policy and action when he's actually in charge, and constrained by the protocol of high office, remains to be seen.  It will be up to the people as a body politic to decide, and that will be clear within a few months.

Until 9th November, when the new President-elect will be clear, be it Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump, it may be wise not to hike the rate.  Better still, it may be best to wait for 20th January, when the new President has the keys to the White House and the Oval Office.  Then the rate could be in line with the policies the President is expected to pursue.

I pray for progressive and peace-making policies for around the world.

Kind regards,
Durudarshan

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Some of the logical consequences of leaving the E.U.

Posted on May 21, 2016 at 6:48 PM Comments comments (9)
The British Chancellor (George Osborne) has suggested that the consequences of Britain leaving the European Union would be 'catastrophic'.

I have just tried to weigh up some of the eventualities, and how they would affect people in Britain.

First of all, I imagine there would be the requirement for visas for Britons visiting any E.U. countries, unlike now, and that would be quite a nuisance, incurring costs and spending time applying for visas.
Likewise, people from the E.U. would need to obtain visas to visit Britain, so the nuisance for them would be similar.

As you know, there is a huge trade between U.K. and the European Union block, accounting for about 40 to 50 percent of annual trade both ways.  If this trade is affected, then I am afraid Mr Obama would be correct, we will be at the end of the que, losing preferential treatment which we currently receive. And if goods are sent to somewhere else instead of United Kingdom, could you imagine, there could be shortages on British supermarket shelves.  Lots of food items currently imported from Ireland, a European Union nation, may suddenly not be available to us.  Half empty supermarket shelves are what people have experienced in Zimbabwe and Venezuela, to site two examples, and of course it is a dreadful picture.

Also, of course, the E.U. nations may start to import from other nations in preference to importing from Britain, as currently.  This would curtail production in the U.K., and I can imagine factories closing and workers being laid off.  I have no reason to sound alarmist; it is merely the consequences I imagine.

This would bring about a contraction in the British economy; some of the European Union nations who trade with us may also face a similar fate. 

Socially, a lot of goodwill would be lost, the various E.U. nations feeling bereft of the friendship and support they have come to take for granted.  It may have some impact on the NATO alliance, and the Russians would be cheerful at that : they have on several occasions made incursions in British airspace in the last two years, and recently their fighter-jets were escorted out of the airspace over Estonia by the British jets over there. Just as Scotland saw it wise to stay within the United Kingdom, so I hope the British will see the wisdom in staying together with the European Union.  In a dangerous unpredictable world, safety must be of the utmost importance.

Economically, the consequences would be quite savage, nothing less.  The huge Foreign Direct Investment coming from the E.U. to U.K. (last year amounting to £469 Billion or so) may find home somewhere else - and there are many nations that would welcome such funds, needless to say.
Similarly, a lot of business with the City of London would be lost - the insurance policies the E.U. takes out here, and the financial dealing in instruments.  At a time when the German bourse is tying up a deal with the London Stock Exchange, it would be a deterrent to the whole deal, if I am not mistaken. 

All told, the Chancellor is not wrong in saying the impact would be catastrophic.  It would be pretty serious at the very least, losing substantial amounts of trade, losing goodwill, cutting jobs, and making each nation feel vulnerable : this would be the environment for all the E.U. members post-Brexit (were it to happen) as well as for Britain.

I have honestly tried to weigh up the points, and I don't like the idea of a Brexit at all.  To protect us from quite unnecessary pain, it may be best for Britons to vote In on 23rd June.  If that consensus feeling permeates the public consciousness and the media in the coming days, I think it may prove a bonus and inject some positiveness and confidence in the markets and the economy in the coming weeks.  Frankly, the idea of a Brexit seems to have been carried a bit too far, and hope it can be quashed.  I imagine the vast majority of people will wish to vote In, for security and mutual support, rather than an uncertain future.

Kind regards,
Durudarshan H. Dadlani

(c) Copyright, but may be freely distributed and shared, with acknowledgement.



The demonstrations in Venezuela - sad signs of the economy

Posted on May 18, 2016 at 5:07 PM Comments comments (8)
The demonstrations in Caracas are ostensibly against the President, Nicolas Maduro, who took over after the sad early demise of Hugo Chavez, who the people trusted very much.  Yet, I would surmise they should have all reason to trust Nicolas Maduro, who was handpicked and tutored for this job by Hugo Chavez. 
     The huge crowds, mothers with babes in arms, not able to find milk for their infants, is a terrible sign of something that has gone wrong for their economy.  These people who were at one time able to import everything they needed are today looking at empty supermarkets.  The fall in the Oil price over the last two years has reduced their income a great deal, the nation relying on Oil for ninety percent of their revenue.  Their are other factors of course, such as fall in exchange rate of their currency (bolivar); but the fall in GDP has been severe, falling several percentage points in each of 2014 and 2015 and on a downward course for 2016 it can be presumed.  Their Oil revenues and reserves have been so decimated that it seems they have problems being able to get any imports.  And while their has been a huge Oil glut, there would seem to be few takers for their Oil;  it may be a blessing for them that the Oil price has stabilised and is moving upwards, and hopefully they shall be able to import essential food products at least from nations who are friendly towards them.  For the sake of the people who seem so frustrated at the lack of food supplies, I pray that can be as soon as is practicable.  Can you just imagine children starving in a once wealthy nation, today not able to find milk, rusks, baby food?  Not to mention the main staple foods which people need. 

     It all boils down to an economic breakdown.  The fall in GDP over the last few years, due mostly to the severe drop in commodity prices, especially Oil, which as I mention is their main export, has eaten away their reserves.  Now their only hope can be perhaps the International Monetary Fund offering them some loan to tide them over for the meantime, and also perhaps some barter deals with other nations to obtain food and other essentials in exchange for Oil supplies in the future.  Of course, if any wealthy nations are able to donate food, I imagine the Venezuelan people would gladly receive that.  The whole dire picture of people almost witless, rallying against the person in charge, Senhor Maduro, as if he could have controlled their economic environment. 

     But I look at Venezuela as an example of the unfolding picture of what is likely to mirror in other Oil exporting nations.  Figures I saw recently suggest troubles ahead for many OPEC nations, especially those who have used up their reserves or taken loans from external sources.  A lot of those economies will be having lower GDP numbers this time, and may experience similar problems.  I suggest they should negotiate some credit and continuation of trade with friendly nations to soften the blow.

     For the moment, I pray that Mr Maduro will speak to ambassadors of the various nations who trade with Venezuela, and see what co-operation they can offer Venezuela, in providing food and other essentials as a matter of urgency and compassion. 

     God-willing, the OPEC nations will have come to their senses and will now impose some quota restrictions on nations that were producing the maximum without care for others, and at the same time allow the other nations who have been absent for the meantime to regain some of their own share as previously.  There has to be great co-operation and understanding between the OPEC nations, so they could achieve a price stability and fairness for all the Oil producing nations.
     Further, now that the commodity prices seem to have hit bottom I pray that all nations will start their various infrastructure and industrial production, so that there can be good trade for all nations.
With good trade, God will prosper every nation.  Indeed, our Heavenly Father and Mother Nature have already given everything to humankind, to harvest the crops, raise the livestock and the fish, extract and craft the minerals, milk the cows, bottle the water and send to where it's needed most, etc, It is only up to human agency to print and distribute money equitably, and facilitate the exchange of goods. 
If we human beings do our duty, we will all be helping the happiness of other fellow human beings, and in turn enhancing our own survival.  As I say, God has already done His duty together with Mother Nature in creating enormous resources in all nations.  It is now upto every one of us to do what would be right.  If there is faith and trust amongst us all, and compassion in our hearts, hopefully the world will rise to helping Venezuela at this hour of their need.


     Kind regards,
     Durudarshan H. Dadlani

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How will the U.S. Presidential candidates fare?

Posted on May 18, 2016 at 8:10 AM Comments comments (31)
After the results from Oregon and Kentucky, Slick Hilly has 2,291 delegates to her name, while her fellow Democrat Bernie Sanders seems adrift with 1,528 delegates for him.  With another 92 delegates backing her, Mrs Clinton is certainly going to notch up her figure for the nomination quite soon, certainly by 7th June, when there is the primary in California with a huge number of delegates.

At the moment, the Bernie team still contend that Senator Sanders is running for the top job, and still superficially the momentum seems to be in his favour - he tends to score a point or two higher than Hillary in some of the States, regardless of the fact that he won't be able to catch up in time with her unassailable lead. 

If today Hillary is on a ratio of 49 to Bernie's 51 in some states, I would deduce that she will collect another 450 delegates by the end of the primary elections, meaning well in excess of the minimum required for the Nomination.  Dream as he might of a 'brokered convention', I believe Senator Sanders is really out of it.  It cannot be a matter of pride for Bernie to note that some of his supporters are going around (or telephoning) threats and vulgarity to Hillary's supporters and campaign co-ordinators.  This is shameful, and of course shows the desperation in their attempt to save the race for Bernie. 

Come the Democrat convention in July, it is patently obvious Mrs Clinton will become the Democrat Nominee for President, thereafter to battle out the general election with the Republican presumptive Nominee, the bombastic billionaire affectionately known with the definite article as The Donald.

The magnetic and mercurial business icon who built the famous Trump Tower and much more in New York and Chicago is out to win.  Had he not opened his account in the campaign by speaking out against Mexicans (or some of them), Islamic radicals (or some of them) and so on, it is quite conceivable the American people would have voted for him.  A lot of people are full of admiration for Donald Trump and what he has achieved.  However, he has cluttered up his score card on the Foreign Policy front with issues that would sour U.S. relations with many nations.  The Islamic nations need to be kept as friends of America.  Malaysia has threatened to draw up sanctions against the U.S. if Donald were to be the President.  Mexico similarly feel exasperated at the idea of a wall against them - as if Mexicans still want to migrate to the U.S. in numbers which were large until 2007. 

Mrs Clinton has now started to broadcast the idea that she would use her husband's ideas of creating jobs.  Of course, Bill Clinton was responsible for creating several million jobs when he was President,
so certainly he will add to her strength.  Madame President will have the power to implement the ideas, and her partner will only too happily provide the ideas which shall bring happiness to the people.  I can imagine a good agenda of rapid pick up in the economy, leading to Prosperity, under Mrs Clinton.

The Donald is a man of action, who gets things done.  In the world of international diplomacy, those who hesitate and think twice may be better received. 

The world would rather see peace, with America the superpower as their friend.  Donald's pre-announced threats to kick-ass the ISIS may not be to everybody's liking, especially the poor beleaguered people of Syria who have found themselves being kicked around and their houses reduced to rubble and the innocent people getting killed whilst different sides add to the confusion. 

With her vast experience as Secretary of State for Defense, and her perceived sensibility to make peace for the various nations, together with her agenda for creating jobs and happiness for all classes of Americans, Hillary for America seems to be the woman for these times.  It will be up to all to deliver the laudatory verdict America for Hillary and elect her to President.  I believe she would make a good, great President.  It is now up to the people to decide.


Kind regards,

Durudarshan


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The Recovery in the Euro Area, and how it could be empowered

Posted on May 11, 2016 at 4:15 PM Comments comments (26)
The figures from Germany don't seem to be too consistent, one month they are down, another they are up, as they used to be before, until they set a straight upwards path to Recovery.  But once again, they seem to be up and down. 

Meantime, the figures from Portugal and Spain and Italy and France seem favourable, suggesting a continuation of the Recovery they have worked so hard to restore, and which seems ready to bear fruit.

Greece seems fully ready to embrace the Recovery for which it has great potential, but they need the impetus, namely they need some funding - not only of the promised bailout which they were promised and which has been awaited eagerly, but also something about the Juncker Plan, which the magnanimous E.U. President favourably suggested would be made available to Greece, to give them a boost in setting up new industries and starting work, to create factories, warehouses, transport and interconnectivity to relay the new products, perhaps set up solar farms to harness the sunshine Greece enjoys, perhaps selling the electricity on to her European partners, perhaps even to countries across the Mediteranean Sea.

But first and foremost, the European Central Bank must ensure something that is missing in the jigsaw of the formation of the Euro.  I believe that just like the United States has twelve different notations for the notes, two letters signifying the issuing bank (they have twelve Federal Reserve Banks, you will have noted), similarly the Euro should have such signature, even if they are printed or electronically issued at one central location, they must be in fairness apportioned to each of the nations in the Euro Area who use the Euro and regard it as their Mother Currency.  That way, the performance of each of the nations can be judged, whether they are above or below their allocated requirements or not.  This would enable a greater degree of fairness be in operation, through open and quantifiable accountability.  This would help ensure that no nation feels they are hard done by, as everybody receives they calculated share and should be able to ensure their own economic performance without reference to feeling in need of a bailout, or feeling they are being harshly treated.  But funding from the central pool of funds must be considered and made available to all nations (in the group), to suitably stimulate their economies.  In a spirit of competition and one-upmanship, it would bring out the best in each nation, to the glory of the constituent whole.

But this system of denoting as in the United States is something that ought to be used.  Hopefully the Treaty must have been altered to allow for the printing and electronic distribution of the central pool, controlled so no numbers are duplicated.  This will add as a pillar to the integrity of the Euro, and I trust the long term survival of this beloved currency and how it will mature to become a Reserve Currency in a few years.  On reflection, it is apparent that the Euro has proved its worth and integrity to be a very useful currency, and it should grow stronger into the future.

I thought I would share these few thoughts with you, dear readers, and I trust the powers that be are listening. 

With the programme of purchasing the asset-backed securities or issuing funds for research and development, upgrade of machinery and capital expansion programmes being facilitated by the E.C.B.,
I estimate a full period of further economic Recovery in the Euro Area can become enabled.  For that I pray.

Kind regards,
Durudarshan H. Dadlani

(c) Copyright      9:14pm  GMT  London    11th May 2016



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