Honest Information, Profitable Trading
|Posted on March 7, 2013 at 4:30 AM|
Cup of herbal tea, a little square of chocolate....? Perhaps a cup of decaf, smooth as milk?
Today is Thursday, when the Bank of England and the ECB will issue some statements regarding
the interest rates (which are already at an all-time low) or other measures to stimulate the economies
After the recent aggregate £375 Billion pumped into the U.K. economy, Sir Mervyn King has to ponder the question of whether another £50 Billion stimulus would be prudent and necessary. Are the MPC allowed to open their minds to him?
If I had the privilege of sitting on the MPC (which I would welcome at some point in the future, even gratis), I would suggest looking at it this way: the recent stimulus of £375 Billion quantifies at around for a population of 66 million, at £5681 per head. By contrat, the U.S. economy, with a population of 330 million, has had a recent stimulus post-2008 of 3T, quantifying at $9090 per head. At current exchange rate for cable, that is £6060 per head in U.S., so the U.K. would be justified in doing another £379.60 per head, or....well, simple multiplicaion by 66 million....another £25 Billion or so to bring it to par with the U.S. (who will be probably stimulating further).
The British landscape shows a picture of shops which are not too busy, but you can't blame people for not spending what they haven't got. The average social security payment is between £42 and £92 per week, just about enough to eat some simple food and drinks, so money for buying clothing or beds or curtains and such things is a bit scarce, compared to the bankers bonuses (being awarded from money which the banks are hoarding from the stimulus). More of the stimulus needs to go to retail customers, either through increase in social net, or through direct lending at sensible rates, so the poor don't become victims of the sharks.
An additional stimulus of £25 to £50 Billion would be in order, I believe. Not only that, to feed in an additional £5 per head may require stimulus of upto £275 Billion in due course, leaving scope for another £225 over the next year or 18 months. That really would be sufficient to stimulate the economy in England, and make it the green and pleasant land it is, with a landscape of thriving businesses and factories, and restaurants (Chinese, Indian, Italian, Greek, Thai, Lebanese, et al), and proud house-owners and expensive cars being driven at a sedate pace.
Such is how it should be, Sir Mervyn.
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