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Durudarshan - Investment Analysis
Durudarshan - Investment Analysis
My Blog
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How is the economic Recovery likely to continue?
| Posted on October 28, 2013 at 8:34 AM |
It has taken all of five years for the world economies to be restored to semblance of normality from the dark days of 2008. Remember those days when the interest rates were quite high in the advanced economies, anything from 4 to 7 percent - and that for the benchmark European Central Bank, Federal Reserve and Bank of England rate. The crisis created by the collapse of Lehmann Bros sent shockwaves throughout the financial system worldwide, with stockmarkets tumbling, loss of confidence in trade, fall in house prices, and a mood of pessimism gripped the world. At the vortex of the crisis, when Oil price reached $147 per barrel, according to OPEC AND European Union figures, about $250 billion additional bills were imposed on the European Union's oil expenditure, and what a terrible crisis it created, making transportation and manufacturing unviable in many countries, e.g. Portugal, Spain, Greece, the extra drain sucking the life-force out of the system. At the peak of the crisis, people who were earlier working in the textile industry were suddenly without work, and wondering how they would find their cod-and-chips. Enterprising young people and old were trying their hand at the e-commerce economy, and finding lot of work but little revenue. The Prime Minister of a sovereign nation which was so prosperous not so long ago was visiting the heads of state of various nations, asking for help. The social security systems were severally stretched, the tax revenues not corresponding to the new outflows. The interest on the bonds became quite high, to attract investors. Talented people from universities were not able to find opportunities to make a living. Demand on housing was as high as ever, but people didn't have money to rent, nor were banks willing to extend mortgages. Indeed, banks and loan corporations were suddenly unviable, after the property price plunge and bankruptcies of many individuals. Today, comparatively, there has been a return of confidence. Things are getting better. Spain, Portugal and Greece have seen their bonds become more attractive to international investors. But the worst is hardly behind us, yet the oil price remains so high. The pending closure of the Grangemouth Refinery is an indicator of the havoc the oil price plays with the balance sheet of such businesses. A business that was viable up until recently today stands in need of £300 million, with that it would support 800 jobs until trade is more favourable. This may be a microcosmic illustration of what could be in store for the OPEC nations, unless they decide to reduce the oil price to a level that is affordable to the rest of the world, and would give the OPEC nations an on-going stable income on a long-term basis into the future, and allow the world to breathe, and help sustain Recovery. It took two-and-a-half years after the high oil price knocked the economies for six for a return to some kind of normal business activity. Common sense tells me that the high price today will probably hamper growth for about a year-and-a-half, and it is already restricting growth and causing hardships in many places, e.g. Yemn, Kenya, India, and almost all the nations outside the G20. I WOULD RESPECTFULLY SUGGEST THAT THE OIL PRICE NEEDS TO BE BELOW $85 A BARREL. That would help the hard-pressed developing nations meet their bills from their depleted reserves or devalued currencies, and enabling continuation of trade with the U.S., China, European Union, Israel and indeed OPEC, which would create a dynamic of mutual co-operation and support that may help all nations thrive and develop all their potential. That is the missing piece of the jigsaw in the picture of a continuation of the worldwide economic Recovery. All the listening hearts of the world know what I am saying, and those who sit in positions of influence will do what is necessary, for that I pray. Kind regards, Duru-darshan. |
Categories: Accomodative Stance., Best in the Industry, Branding, Cultural harmony, Detroit, Developments in Orissa, Bengal, Meghalaya, Divine Guidance, Durudarshan for Prime Minister of India, May 2014, Egypt, Eike Batista, 10th Richest Man in the World., Growth for Europe, Health - Diabetes, Help for Indebted Farmers in India, Help save High Street stores in Britain, Homely Comfort, Housing - Social and Improvements., India, Jobs and growth, Middle East, Mr Maponya, a dream city in South Africa., Odisha, Andhra Pradesh, Bengal, Oil price and Recovery, Oil price far too high, The price of Oil, U.S. shutdown, Website traffic streams, Welcome, West Bengal, Winds, be thee still., Worldwide Economic Recovery, www.durudarshan.co.uk, Zimbabwe - may it continue with fair policies
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