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Durudarshan - Investment Analysis

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Markets take a breather pending US fiscal deal confirmation.

Posted on December 20, 2013 at 4:13 AM

Categories: Accomodative Stance., Continuation of Recovery.

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7 Comments

Reply Duru-darshan
2:21 PM on December 20, 2013 
It seems the U.S. Senate has to confirm Janet Yellen's promotion to Federal Reserve Chairman. This will be done soon after 6th January 2014. In his valedictory statement, Mr. Bernanke expressed confidence in his deputy, and it is probable that she too will follow accommodative policies of QE until such time as there is sound economic Recovery.
(At current gradients, this is probably about 18 months away, according to my estimate). In the meantime, the stimulus is reduced to $75 billion a month. Similar policies are under way in Japan as well, an indication that the stimulus has been effective and the world economies have healed to a great deal from the dark days of 2008. I pray Recovery continues, creating heatmaps of happiness across the globe.
Reply Malm
2:22 PM on February 1, 2014 
Hey! Do you use Twitter? I'd like to follow you if that would be okay.
I'm absolutely enjoying your blog and look forward
to new posts.
Reply Malm
2:23 PM on February 1, 2014 
Hey! Do you use Twitter? I'd like to follow you if that would be okay.
I'm absolutely enjoying your blog and look forward
to new posts.
Reply Duru-darshan
9:41 AM on February 4, 2014 
Dr Janet Yellen has now assumed her Chairmanship of the Federal Reserve.
I look forward to how she holds the reins and steers the policies between being accommodative for sustained economic Recovery and growth, wealth creation, helping to reduce the disparity in incomes and also reining in the Stimulus in line with demands of the prevailing market conditions.
Reply Durudarshan
12:32 PM on February 11, 2014 
As the q.e. was paced out over 20 months, similarly the taper probably needs to be paced out over 20 months. Otherwise the jobs number for January suggest a cooling down of Recovery, and taper done in a shorter time frame would prove counter-productive.
Reply Durudarshan H. Dadlani
4:09 PM on April 9, 2014 
The story of the worldwide economic Recovery continues, stronger than it had been feared. It seems after a ten years in the lull, Aluminium demand is about to pick up, with Alcoa the American giant in this sector seeming robust demand henceforth and accordingly stepping up production and upgrade of production facilities.
On a cautionary note, I would suggest that Dr Yellen needs to pace out the taper over 20 months (as the stimulus was introduced over such a period) to counter sudden cuts which would harm the economic momentum.
Some of the Chinese state economists were expecting US stimulus to be at $96.3 billion a month, rather than a cut from $85b to current $55b a month. I believe Dr Yellen should note data three months after each cut before deciding on the next move. Perhaps she should consider restoring some of the stimulus?
Reply Mivan
4:28 AM on December 27, 2018 
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